Gold Tops $5,100 as Dollar Slips Before Key US Jobs Data

Gold prices surged past the $5,100 mark on Monday as a weakening U.S. dollar and expectations of soft American labour data drove investors toward the precious metal.

Spot gold rose 2.5% to $5,103.10 per ounce by late afternoon in New York, extending a 4% rally from Friday. Earlier, spot gold traded at $5,063.88, up 2.1%. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 2% higher at $5,079.40, after gaining 2.2% to $5,087.10 intraday.

Contents

01

Dollar Weakness Fuels the Rally

02

Labour Data in the Spotlight

03

How Gold Reacted in July

04

Central Banks Provide Structural Support

05

Silver and Other Metals Join the Surge

Dollar Weakness Fuels the Rally

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.8% to a more than one-week low, making bullion cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

“The big mover today in gold prices is the U.S. dollar,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, adding that expectations are growing for weak economic data, particularly on the labour front.

Labour Data in the Spotlight

Investors are closely watching this week's U.S. nonfarm payrolls, consumer prices, and initial jobless claims for signals on Federal Reserve policy. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by just 70,000 in January, according to a Reuters poll.

Markets are already pricing in at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026. Lower rates support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

How Gold Reacted in July

Gold's sensitivity to labour data was on display on July 2, 2026, when spot gold jumped 2.2% to $4,117.63 after payrolls came in far weaker than expected. U.S. gold futures rose 1.2% to $4,130.10, while the dollar index fell 0.7%.

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs that month, well below the 110,000 economists had forecast, with unemployment at 4.2%.

“The lower-than-expected jobs number portends to less likelihood of potential rate hikes,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “Gold performs better in lower interest rate environments.”

Traders subsequently cut the odds of a September rate hike to nearly 51%, down from 66%, according to CME FedWatch. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh noted inflation expectations and risks had come down in recent weeks.

Central Banks Provide Structural Support

China's central bank extended its gold-buying spree for a 15th consecutive month in January, according to the People's Bank of China.

“Consistent central-bank demand, with China at the epicentre, has become both an important stabilizing force and a market bellwether,” said Eugenia Mykuliak, Founder and Executive Director of B2PRIME Group, adding that steady official buying is putting a structural floor under the market.

The World Gold Council reported that central banks were back in buying mode in May 2025, with official gold reserves increasing by a net 41 tonnes.

Silver and Other Metals Join the Surge

Spot silver climbed 8.8% to $83.66 per ounce after a near 10% gain in the previous session. Silver hit an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29.

Spot platinum rose 0.8% to $2,112.56 per ounce, while palladium gained 1.3% to $1,727.75.